Independent research on economics and markets — market letters and research notes.https://www.ken-capital.com/https://www.ken-capital.com/research/fed-short-end-long-end/https://www.ken-capital.com/research/fed-short-end-long-end/In an efficient market the Treasury curve prices the expected path of the federal funds rate. The same regression at three points on the curve shows the funds rate is cointegrated with the 2-year Treasury, spurious against the 30-year mortgage, and — once the 10-year is in the model — adds nothing the long end has not already priced.Thu, 16 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.ken-capital.com/letters/inaugural-letter/https://www.ken-capital.com/letters/inaugural-letter/Why I'm publishing my investment research in the open, how I work, and what to expect from these letters.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT