Ken Capital
Independent research on macro regimes, market internals, security analysis, and portfolio construction.
An independent investment-research portfolio by Ken Zhang · Baruch College, Zicklin School of Business · Passed all three CMT Program examinations (charter pending qualifying experience) · CFA Program Level I candidate.
Featured research
The Curve Prices the Fed — the Short End, Not the Long
In an efficient market the Treasury curve prices the expected path of the federal funds rate.
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p = 0.0002
Funds ↔ 2-year
cointegrated
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p = 0.224
Funds ↔ 30-year mortgage
spurious
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β = 0.005
Funds, given the 10-year
adds nothing
The framework
See the framework →Four lenses, in one order
Economics sets the regime, fundamentals value the business, quantitative work tests the evidence, and technicals read supply and demand — the four fuse into a single buy/sell decision.
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I (01)
Economics
what regime are we in
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II (02)
Fundamental
the how & why
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III (03)
Quantitative
test the data
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IV (04)
Technical
supply & demand
More writing
What I cover
All coverage →- Economics
- Macro & rates
- Monetary policy
- Geopolitical events
- IPOs & new issues
New to the terms?
Full glossary →Every note links its jargon to a one-line, plain-English definition, so a reader who doesn't know a term gets it in place. A few to start:
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Federal funds rate
The overnight rate the Fed targets — its main policy lever.
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Term premium
The extra yield demanded for locking money up longer.
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Cointegration
The test for whether two wandering series are genuinely tied together long-run.
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