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The short way in

Ken Capital is my independent research portfolio. Every piece shows the data, the method, and what would change my mind — including when the result went against what I expected. Pick a path by how long you've got.

• If you have 2 min read

  Inaugural Letter — Research in the Open

  Why I'm publishing my investment research in the open, how I work, and what to expect from these letters.

• If you have 24 min read

  The Curve Prices the Fed — the Short End, Not the Long

  In an efficient market the Treasury curve prices the expected path of the federal funds rate. The same regression at three points on the curve shows the funds rate is cointegrated with the 2-year Treasury, spurious against the 30-year mortgage, and — once the 10-year is in the model — adds nothing the long end has not already priced.

  The most recent note, with the method shown rather than only the conclusion. Read this one to judge whether the work holds up.

• If you're evaluating me

  How I work · Résumé

  The process page states the standard each note is held to. The résumé is one page, no surprises.

• If a term is unfamiliar

  The glossary

  The notes don't simplify the method — they define the terms. Every piece of jargon used in the research is explained in plain English.